Can Trump Really Win in 2024?

Spoiler Alert: It's very unlikely since he has so much working against him. But his odds are greater than zero which for many of us is terrifying.

Personal Disclosure: I like many others didn't think he would win in 2016. But many believe that Trump himself didn't even expect to win in 2016 either.

The days after the 2020 election turned to turmoil culminating in the January 6 insurrection in Congress which resulted in massive injuries and a few deaths. Trump believed overturning the largely ceremonial Senate count of the electoral vote decided in December was his last chance to overturn the election. Once that failed, he had no choice but to move out of the White House and contemplate another run in 2024.

As most of us know, if Trump had been convicted in the second impeachment conducted later that month, he would have been disqualified from seeking public office for life. And indeed 10 Senate Republicans voted for conviction but it was less than the 2/3 majority required for a conviction. This was a missed chance to get rid of a menace to our democracy once and for all! But it was not a secret vote so there were fears of retaliation held by many of the Republican Senators. And besides, few people thought he would seriously seek another term.

By most accounts, Trump did not really like the everyday duties of a president. He was known to spend many hours of the day watching TV and occasionally phoning in to his favorite Fox shows. Yes, it was a power trip but does it really beat playing golf every day at Mar-a-Lago and being worshiped by his fawning membership?

But there were storm clouds of upcoming indictments coming his way. Surely, the Department of Justice wouldn't prosecute a candidate running for office, he thought. So he declared his 2024 presidential candidacy far earlier than anyone else who would run for the Republican nomination. His announcement speech was lacking energy being read from a teleprompter. This would be the end of him in public office, or so we thought.

But one cannot underestimate his loving fan base who gave him more energy with each incendiary speech. Once the inevitable indictments landed, he even picked up more energy and poll numbers. His followers ate up pronouncements like "I am your retribution" and his campaign based on grievances was picking up steam. It didn't take long for him to lap the rest of the Republican primary field making him at this time, a prohibitive favorite to secure the party nomination in 2024.

In more recent months, he has talked of a totalitarian takeover of the Department of Justice, using it to prosecute those whom he believes wronged him along with enlisting a pre-screened army of loyalists to take over the rest of the government functions. In addition, many of his ambitions are supported by the conservative Heritage Foundation as Project 2025. He even floated the idea of pardons for convicted January 6 insurrectionists. And while he was at it, he believes he can use a presidential victory to shield himself from any justice should he win the 2024 election. Many observers feel this is his primary reason for running.

Trump as always is the showman who attracts media along with voter attention. On the other hand Biden has a much more subdued style that many have attributed to him being too old to run for office again. Biden may be too old, but little is said about the likely Republican nominee in Trump who is only 3 years younger.

Many in Biden's own party feel that he is too old to run again. But for better or worse, he did decide to run. His decision was helped along because parties make it difficult for a primary challenger to be competitive against an incumbent president. There have been a few in the past. LBJ was seriously challenged by Senators Eugene McCarthy and Robert F. Kennedy over the Vietnam War which led to LBJ's surprise withdrawal. And Senator Ted Kennedy had an unsuccessful run against President Jimmy Carter.

With the threat to our democracy Trump represents, perhaps Biden felt he is the only one who can defeat Trump. Many disagree, but what other candidate with enough experience would be a safe bet to beat Trump?

Something many overlook is that the Biden Administration is more than just one octogenarian. Unlike Trump who often filled positions with unqualified loyalists (e.g. Chief Advisors son-in-law Jared Kushner and daughter Ivanka), Biden has surrounded himself with many competent, experienced people to help him. In my opinion, if Biden somehow can't go the distance in his second term, that team of people, yes including VP Kamala Harris, will do a more than competent job of running things until the next election.

But what about all those polls that have Trump running close or even leading in some states? We should take this as a message to not take Trump lightly but we don't need to cower in fear. For one thing, polls a year before the election don't really tell us anything. Unlike political junkies like me, most people don't really pay attention to an upcoming election until about a month or two before. On top of that is a distinct possibility that Trump may be a convicted felon by Election Day. While many of his supporters don't mind the indictments, a convicted felon may give at least some a reason to rethink their support of him.

Democrats have been running the table lately over the issue of abortion. And it is a sure thing to be a prominent issue in 2024. While one's view of abortion is subjective, there is one objective fact: Pro-choice Americans are a solid majority, even in most heavily Republican states. When citizens have had a choice in state referendums over abortion, the pro-choice side so far has always won - even in deep Red states like Kansas and more recently, Ohio. 

When Roe v Wade was struck down, the pretense by Republicans was that now voters in individual states can decide on their own abortion laws. But that turned out to be a lie! Many of the Republican controlled states with some of the most onerous restrictions (no exceptions for rape, incest, or the life of the mother) are controlled by heavily gerrymandered legislatures with lopsided Republican majorities that don't necessarily represent the will of its voters. Put another way, voters in many Republican controlled states are petitioning for referendums on abortion with those in charge doing everything to resist because they rightly fear that they would lose!

Strangely enough, many Republicans are doubling down against abortion saying it's a messaging issue. But this is nothing more than the denial of the pro-choice majority. Make no mistake about it, abortion is a losing issue for Republicans! But yes, some are starting to realize this. Recently, Texas Senators Cruz and Cornyn when asked about the Texas ban blocking a pregnant mother's request to abort an nonviable fetus refused to comment.

This quote from Cornyn was a real winner!

“I’m not a state official, so I’m not going to comment on what state officials are doing. I’m happy to comment on anything that I’m responsible for,”

Does he think the voters are that stupid? It was he along with all of the other Republican Senators who confirmed the three Trump Supreme Court nominees with the aim of overturning Roe.

But let's not get overconfident over Biden's chances over the abortion issue. There are a number of banana peels he can slip on.

The Israeli attack in Gaza to try and eliminate Hamas is fraught with political landmines. After the horrific October 7 attack on Israel by Hamas, Biden expressed his unconditional support of Israel. But as the civilian casualties in Gaza mounted, Israel has been condemned by many, especially on the left who despite Biden's efforts to exert some control over Israel, he is seen as an accomplice to what many consider to be the needless suffering and deaths of innocent Palestinian civilians in Israel's efforts to take out Hamas.

There is also talk of third party candidates running for the presidency. Retiring West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin is considering running as a No Labels candidate. More concerning is Jill Stein, running to the left again in the Green Party. Third party candidates can't win any states but can affect the outcome in closely contested swing states. Some believe Stein helped Donald Trump defeat Hillary Clinton in 2016. But it is indisputable that Ralph Nader in 2000 helped George W. Bush defeat Al Gore in Florida, delivering the presidency to Bush.

Although economic numbers are strong, the mood of much of the electorate is sour on the economy which is resulting in surprisingly low approval numbers for Biden which can hurt an incumbent president running for reelection.

So this is to say that obviously, Biden is not perfect. But despite the resistance to another Biden-Trump rematch, barring something unforeseen, the American electorate has a binary choice. Once the election gets closer, voters will get to choose between either the incumbent in Biden or Trump whose campaign language has degenerated from merely authoritarian to outright Hitler and Nazi propaganda.

But to preserve our democracy and not descend into authoritarianism, we must stay vigilant. As repulsive as Trump's hate speech may be to many of us, the sad truth is that Trump's enthusiastic supporters love him not in spite of his hateful words but because of them. Our only saving grace is that they are slightly in the minority. So for those of us on the other side, when Election Day comes, we will have to show up and vote to save our democracy. Staying home is not an option!

Biden modestly sums it all up this way with a quote from his father:

..don't compare me with the Almighty. Compare me to the alternative.